The more I look at Friday’s race, the more psyched out I get. I’m not saying Distinguishable can’t win–after all, she’s 4-to-1 on the morning line–but it isn’t going to be easy.
We are the third choice in an eight-horse field of $25,000 claiming fillies and mares that is top to bottom tough. Moreover, the race appears loaded with speed, not an ideal scenario considering Distinguishable is a front-runner. Kiss My Lulu and Ila Veiw are both confirmed speedsters, while Distinguishable, Parkers Delight and Our Silver Lining also have good early lick. Arlington Lady, Fly Far Away and Trinni are stretch-runners that could be rallying into a fast pace.
Reminder we’re in Race 6 at 9 p.m. It’s the featured Muckleshoot Casino Purse with a purse of $15,200, and wouldn’t it be fun to have Javier Matias, Mike Puhich and a couple of ERC members interviewed by Joe Withee after the race? In any event, the weather is going to be splendid and hopefully everyone has a lot of fun.
I thought it might be fun to get Matt Dinerman’s opinion of the race. In addition to being America’s youngest track announcer at age 24, Matt also is an excellent handicapper whose selections appear every race day on emeralddowns.com. I asked Matt to first envision on how he sees the race shaping up in terms of pace, and then to select the top three finishers.
Here is the field with the morning line odds followed by Matt Dinerman’s analysis: 1-Arlington Lady, Erick Lopez, 12-1; 2-Fly Far Away, Julien Couton, 8-1; 3-Kiss My Lulu, Juan Gutierrez, 6-1; 4-Ila Veiw, Eswan Flores, 5/2; 5-Parkers Delight, Jose Zunino, 3-1; 6-Distinguishable, Javier Matias, 4-1; 7-Our Silver Lining, Eliska Kubinova, 15-1; 8-Trinni, Rocco Bowen, 5-1
“Hi everyone! Matt here. I’m really looking forward to calling the green and white Emerald Racing Club silks this Friday night. Like Vince said, there is a lot of speed in this race. Let’s go over each quick filly and mare:
#3 Kiss My Lulu is a ‘need the lead’ type, meaning if she doesn’t race on the lead, she stops. So, there’s one way for her to go. She’ll be out in front.
The runner breaking right to her outside, #4 Ila Veiw, has also done her best work when on the lead, so I expect her to be keeping Kiss My Lulu company on the front end.
#7 Our Silver Lining has dueled on the lead in prior starts, but she has tactical speed, meaning she can be effective stalking the pace (AKA sitting RIGHT behind the leaders) before making her run down the stretch. The good news for Our Silver Lining is she is drawn OUTSIDE of the other speedsters. Her jockey (Eliska Kubinova) can look over, see what others are doing and then place her where she sees fit. It wouldn’t be surprising if she sits right on the leaders’ tails, though I can’t see her being farther than a length and a half away from the pace. If she was drawn inside, Eliska would probably have to be a little more aggressive out of the gates and go to the lead to make sure not to get trapped in traffic. But because she is drawn outside Eliska knows she’s going to get a clear trip, so she has options.
Now….#6 Distinguishable has speed herself. In her first start for ‘The Club,’ I’m sure you all remember she went to the lead and never stopped. Last time out, she stalked the pace and finished third. I think Distinguishable is a lot like Our Silver Lining; she can stalk if need be but her best weapon is her speed. She is naturally quick and if you take away that natural quickness, she is not going to be in a good, fluid stride and she won’t run her very best race. I expect Javier to let Distinguishable get in a natural, quick stride, put her in a stalking spot and then ask her to run by the leaders down the stretch.
Vince is right; this is not an easy spot. You’ve got a lot of nice quality fillies and mares in here. My top pick is Parker’s Delight, who is going to get a perfect stalking trip off the speed and will get the first jump on the closers if the pace collapses. My second pick is Kiss My Lulu, making her first start for the Blaine Wright stable. Blaine is exceptionally good at improving runners once he claims them. In fact, he wins at a 32% clip with runners making their first start for him after a claim! My third pick is your girl Distinguishable. This is a really tough field she is running against, but she is training GREAT at Pegasus and the fact she has tactical speed gives me the confidence that Javier can put her in a good spot based on how the race is shaping up and, hopefully, put up a solid effort.
Sometimes, horses that come off of HUGE efforts “bounce” in their next start, meaning they regress significantly. This could be the case with Ila Veiw, who ran her eyeballs out three weeks ago in an allowance race, losing the contest by a head after getting a clear lead and setting the pace before getting tagged in the final strides. The thing is, this time she is going to have company out on the front end and it will be awfully hard to duplicate that last run. So, from a horseplayer perspective, she is a play against for me, especially at a short price. HOWEVER, if she CAN repeat that last effort, she’s tough.
Good luck to The Emerald Racing Club on Friday night! We look forward to seeing many members at the track. Hopefully, we’ll see you all in the winner’s circle too!”